Chelsea and Man United in Race for European Spots Before Season Finale
Chelsea and Man United are locked in a battle to secure European qualification for next season, with just one Premier League fixture remaining.
The Situation
Both teams secured crucial victories in their penultimate matches, with Chelsea edging past Brighton and Manchester United overcoming Newcastle.
These results position Chelsea in sixth place and Manchester United in eighth place in the Premier League table heading into the final matchday on Sunday.
While the top four spots for Champions League qualification have already been claimed by Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, and Aston Villa, Chelsea and Manchester United are vying for spots in the Europa League and the Europa Conference League alongside Tottenham and Newcastle.
How Europa League Qualification Works
According to Metro.co.uk, the possible permutations are as follows: With the Champions League spots filled, the focus shifts to Europa League and Europa Conference League qualification. The team that finishes fifth, most likely Tottenham at this point, will automatically qualify for the Europa League.
However, determining the sixth and seventh-place finishers, and their corresponding European competitions, is slightly more complex due to the upcoming FA Cup final between Manchester United and Manchester City.
• Manchester United Win FA Cup: A Manchester United victory in the FA Cup final guarantees them a Europa League spot regardless of their final Premier League position. If they finish sixth with the FA Cup win, the seventh-place team would qualify for the Europa Conference League. However, if they win the FA Cup and finish lower than sixth, then the seventh-place team misses out on Europe altogether, with the sixth-place team grabbing the Europa Conference League spot.
• Manchester City Win FA Cup: A Manchester City FA Cup victory would award the Europa League spot to the sixth-place Premier League finisher, with the Europa Conference League spot going to the seventh-place team.
Chelsea’s Path to Europe
Chelsea’s qualification path hinges on a combination of their own result and Tottenham’s.
A top-five finish remains a mathematical possibility for Chelsea, but it would require a Tottenham loss to Sheffield United coupled with their own victory over Bournemouth.
A more realistic scenario is a sixth-place finish, which could lead to either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League depending on the FA Cup outcome. To secure at least sixth place, Chelsea only needs a point against Bournemouth.
However, a loss combined with a Newcastle win over Brentford would see them drop to seventh, potentially missing out on Europe altogether (if Manchester United wins the FA Cup).
Manchester United’s European Hopes
Manchester United’s qualification hinges on both their Premier League performance and the FA Cup final.
A victory against Manchester City in the FA Cup final guarantees them a Europa League spot regardless of their league finish.
If they lose the FA Cup final, they need a sixth-place finish in the league to secure a Europa League spot, while seventh place would grant them entry into the Europa Conference League.
While mathematically possible, finishing sixth in the league is highly improbable for Manchester United due to a significant goal difference gap.
A more realistic target is seventh place, which still requires them to outperform Newcastle on the final day.
A loss to Brighton would eliminate them from European qualification altogether, unless they manage to win the FA Cup. Newcastle’s result against Brentford also plays a role in United’s fate.
A Newcastle loss would allow United to secure seventh place with a draw against Brighton, while a Newcastle draw would necessitate a Manchester United win.
