A recent supercomputer analysis has revealed the Premier League’s expected points table for the season so far, with some surprising outcomes, as reported by Mail Sports.
Liverpool, under new boss Arne Slot, have hit the ground running, topping both the actual and expected points tables as they head into the second international break of the campaign.
Manchester City and Arsenal trail close behind, with just one point separating the top three teams after seven games, while Chelsea, led by Enzo Maresca, have also impressed, but it’s Manchester United’s struggles that stand out most.
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Erik ten Hag’s third season was meant to be a title push, yet they’re languishing in 14th place, marking their worst-ever start in Premier League history.
Opta reveals Premier League’s expected points table
Opta’s supercomputer, however, has crunched the data, revealing that while some teams’ actual league positions align with their performances, others are arguably riding their luck.
The model, which uses the expected goals (xG) metric from each shot taken to predict where each team should be, ran 10,000 simulations for each match to determine where clubs should be sitting.
Interestingly, Liverpool’s top spot reflects their real-world dominance. Chelsea, currently fourth, may feel they deserve more, with Opta’s metrics placing them second. If they can match their expected numbers, Maresca’s side could be well-positioned for a title chase, a huge turnaround given the club’s turbulent recent years.
Meanwhile, Arsenal, third in reality, rank much lower in the expected points table, down in eighth after several tight contests where they scraped results. Manchester City’s position shifts slightly, dropping to third, while Tottenham and Aston Villa round out the top five.
Manchester United, on the other hand, could be as high as 10th if their performances better aligned with their xG, offering some consolation in what’s been a deeply frustrating season for the Red Devils.
