Our Benfica vs Celtic prediction is a comfortable home win, with the Eagles returning to the Estadio da Luz on Thursday night to host Celtic in UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 — a tie that brings together two clubs heading in very different directions in the 2026/27 league phase.
Recent form underlines the gulf: Benfica have won four of their last five in all competitions, the only blemish a 1-3 defeat at FC Porto on 20 September that ended the club’s remarkable 55-game unbeaten league run, while Celtic have lost three of their last five, including back-to-back defeats in Europe and to Rangers at home. This Benfica vs Celtic prediction column explains why the Portuguese giants are such strong favourites — and why the best betting angles go well beyond the short-priced home win.
Benfica vs Celtic Match Preview / Betting Preview
The 2026/27 UEFA Europa League league-phase Matchday 2 clash takes place at the Estadio da Luz on Thursday 15 October 2026, with kickoff at 20:00 WAT. Benfica opened their European campaign with a statement 2-0 victory away at AC Milan on 16 September, while Celtic suffered a sobering 1-3 home defeat to Ferencvaros on 17 September. With Marco Silva’s men already inside the top eight and Martin O’Neill’s visitors chasing their first points of the competition, the stakes could hardly be clearer.
Team Recent Form
Benfica – last five (form W-W-W-L-W, most recent first):
- 11 Oct: Benfica 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes (H, Primeira Liga) – Win
- 20 Sep: FC Porto 1-3 Benfica (A, Primeira Liga) – Loss, ending Benfica’s 55-game unbeaten league run
- 16 Sep: AC Milan 0-2 Benfica (A, UEFA Europa League) – Win
- 13 Sep: Benfica 3-1 Gil Vicente (H, Primeira Liga) – Win
- 9 Sep: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica (A, Primeira Liga) – Win
Celtic – last five (form W-L-L-L-W, most recent first):
- 11 Oct: Motherwell 0-2 Celtic (A, Scottish Premiership) – Win
- 20 Sep: Celtic 0-1 Rangers (H, Scottish Premiership) – Loss
- 17 Sep: Celtic 1-3 Ferencvaros (H, UEFA Europa League) – Loss
- 13 Sep: Rangers 0-3 Celtic (A, Scottish League Cup) – Loss
- 9 Sep: St Johnstone 0-1 Celtic (A, Scottish Premiership) – Win
That is 12 goals scored by Benfica across those five games, against just four for Celtic.
Key Stats
- Benfica sit 7th on 3 points, inside the top-8 automatic qualification cutoff after Matchday 1; Celtic are 28th on 0 points.
- Benfica have won all four previous home meetings with Celtic, by a combined 9-1 aggregate.
- Celtic have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 29 UEFA Europa League main-draw games.
3-0: Benfica’s wide creators Schjelderup and Lukebakio — scorers at San Siro on MD1 — will stress Celtic’s young right flank for a comfortable home win.
Benfica vs Celtic H2H
- The clubs have met 8 times in total: Benfica 4 wins, Celtic 3 wins, 1 draw.
- The most recent meetings came in 2012: Benfica 2-1 Celtic at the Estadio da Luz on 20 November 2012, and Celtic 0-0 Benfica at Celtic Park on 19 September 2012.
- Earlier ties: Celtic 1-0 Benfica on 6 November 2007; Benfica 1-0 Celtic on 24 October 2007; Benfica 3-0 Celtic on 1 November 2006.
- Benfica have won all four Lisbon meetings against Celtic, by a 9-1 aggregate.
The head-to-head record underlines why our Benfica vs Celtic prediction leans so heavily toward the hosts.
Pre Game Odds
- Benfica: 1.25
- Draw: 5.80
- Celtic: 10.00
Odds via footballpredictions.ai.
Team News Benfica
OUT: Jakub Kaminski (winger, injured), Enzo Barrenechea (midfielder, injured). No doubts found.
Predicted Benfica lineup (4-2-3-1): Soares; Bah, Circati, Araujo, Dahl; Barreiro, Palhinha; Silva, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.
Team News Celtic
OUT: Alistair Johnston, Callum Osmand, Yang Hyun-Jun (all injured). DOUBT: Cameron Carter-Vickers (late fitness assessment).
Predicted Celtic lineup (4-2-3-1): Sinisalo; Donovan, Murray, Scales, Tierney; McGregor, Baur; Duran, Nygren, Tounekti; Hogh.
Benfica vs Celtic Betting Tips
- Tip 1 – Result: Benfica win. The Eagles are 7th in the table after a 2-0 win at San Siro on MD1, while Celtic are 28th and have lost three of their last five.
- Tip 2 – Over-Under 2.5: Over 2.5 goals. Benfica’s wide creators are flying and Celtic have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 29 European games — this should be one-way traffic at the Luz.
- Tip 3 – BTTS Yes-No: BTTS No. Benfica kept a clean sheet at the San Siro on MD1 and Celtic have failed to score in two of their last five matches.
That wraps up our Benfica vs Celtic prediction, betting tips and team news for Thursday’s tie at the Estadio da Luz. For more European football previews, see our Real Betis vs Porto prediction, betting tips and team news.
