The magic and passion of the Copa del Rey take centre stage as third-tier giant-killers AD Ceuta welcome the might of Segunda División promotion-chasers SD Eibar to the unique and intimidating atmosphere of the Estadio Alfonso Murube. This is a classic cup tie, pitting a highly motivated home side that views this as their biggest match of the season against a powerful opponent whose primary focus lies elsewhere. With Ceuta’s formidable home record and the long, awkward journey facing a likely-rotated Eibar side, all the ingredients are in place for a potential cup upset.
This in-depth match preview is designed for the savvy punter, providing a detailed breakdown of the cup dynamics, crucial team news, and key statistics. Our analysis aims to look beyond league positions to find the true value in this fascinating clash of ambition and priority.
AD Ceuta vs Eibar Match Preview
Team Recent Form
Both teams enter this cup tie in strong league form, but in entirely different contexts. Ceuta have been dominant at home in the Primera Federación, building significant momentum. Eibar have been picking up crucial wins in the highly competitive Segunda División, showcasing their superior quality on paper.
AD Ceuta: WWDWL
Eibar: WWDLW
Key Stats
- AD Ceuta are unbeaten in their last ten matches at the Estadio Alfonso Murube, winning eight of those games.
- Eibar’s manager has confirmed he will make wholesale changes to his starting XI, prioritising their upcoming league match for promotion.
- AD Ceuta have a history of giant-killing, having knocked La Liga side Elche out of the Copa del Rey at this venue in the 2022/23 season.
I am predicting a famous 2-1 upset victory for AD Ceuta. This prediction is based on the classic formula for a Copa del Rey shock. The home side is at full strength, playing in front of a fanatical crowd in what is their “cup final.” The away team, while from a higher division, is heavily rotated, has a lower motivation for this competition, and has had to endure one of the longest and most difficult trips in Spanish football. Ceuta’s intensity and desire can overwhelm an Eibar second-string side that may lack cohesion and the will for a physical fight.
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AD Ceuta vs Eibar H2H
This will be a historic occasion, as it marks the first-ever competitive meeting between these two clubs. The focus, therefore, shifts to their respective pedigrees in this competition.
- This is the first-ever fixture between AD Ceuta and SD Eibar.
- Ceuta have won their last three home Copa del Rey matches against higher-division opposition.
- Eibar have been eliminated from the Copa del Rey by lower-league opposition in two of the last four seasons.
- The trip from the Basque Country to the autonomous city of Ceuta on the African coast is one of the longest journeys any team will face in the competition.
Pre-Game Odds
The pre-game odds have Eibar as favourites, but the price is much closer than a typical league match would suggest, indicating the bookmakers are wary of a potential upset.
- AD Ceuta to Win: 3.60
- Draw: 3.40
- Eibar to Win: 2.05
Team News: AD Ceuta
Manager José Juan Romero has a full-strength squad and has labelled this the most important game of their season so far. He will field his strongest possible lineup, aiming to harness the energy of the home crowd to press Eibar from the first whistle. There will be no rotation and no holding back for the home side.
Team News: Eibar
Eibar boss Joseba Etxeberria has been clear in his pre-match press conference that his priority is the weekend’s crucial promotion clash. He has confirmed he will rest all of his key starters, including top scorer Stoichkov and playmaker Mario Soriano. The travelling squad will consist of fringe players and promising youngsters from the academy.
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Predicted Line-ups
AD Ceuta (4-4-2):
Montoya; García, Gutiérrez, Danese, Redru; Moyano, López, Meléndez, González; Cuevas, Rodri
Eibar (4-2-3-1):
Rodríguez; Tejero, Venâncio, Simic, Ríos; Vencedor, Álvarez; Madariaga, Aketxe, Quique; Bautista
AD Ceuta vs Eibar Betting Tips
Based on the clear potential for a cup upset, all the value lies with the motivated home side. Here are the three standout betting tips.
- Tip 1 – Result: AD Ceuta Double Chance (Win or Draw). This is a very secure bet. Given all the circumstances favouring the home side, it is very difficult to see them losing this match in 90 minutes.
- Tip 2 – Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 Goals. Cup games featuring a rotated favourite can often be open and chaotic. Ceuta will attack with passion, and Eibar’s backup defence will be vulnerable, leading to goals.
- Tip 3 – Both Teams to Score: Yes. The most likely path to victory for Ceuta is by outscoring the visitors. Eibar’s second-string attack will still possess enough quality to score against a third-tier defence, making goals at both ends highly probable.
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