The Stadio Olimpico hosts a Champions League League Phase Matchday 2 tie on Wednesday 14 October 2026, and it is a reunion story: José Mourinho returns to his former club AS Roma in his second spell as Real Madrid manager, for the first competitive meeting between the sides in eight years. Roma drew 1-1 at Fenerbahçe on MD1; Madrid beat Inter 2-1 at home.
The bookmakers price Madrid at around 1.83, but this AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction has a genuine edge because Gian Piero Gasperini’s unbeaten side own Serie A’s best defensive record and have won eight of their last nine European home games.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Date | Wednesday, 14 October 2026 — 20:00 WAT |
| Home | AS Roma |
| Away | Real Madrid |
| Main prediction | Real Madrid win |
| Correct score | 1-2 |
| Hot Tip | Both teams to score — Yes — Roma are unbeaten this season and won 8 of their last 9 home games in this competition; Madrid have conceded in both La Liga away defeats. |
AS Roma vs Real Madrid Match Preview
The decisive duel is Gasperini’s back three and screening pair (de Roon, Koné) against Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 — Diomande’s new right-flank role and Bellingham’s channel runs test the space behind Roma’s advanced wingbacks Molina and Wesley, so Madrid must find Bellingham or Güler between the lines early or risk chasing the game against Malen, Soulé and Dybala on the counter.
Recent Form
AS Roma — D D W D W:
- 11 Oct — Como 0-0 Roma (A, Serie A)
- 19 Sep — Roma 2-2 Inter Milan (H, Serie A)
- 14 Sep — Torino 0-2 Roma (A, Serie A)
- 10 Sep — Fenerbahçe 1-1 Roma (A, UCL MD1)
- 5 Sep — Roma 2-1 Atalanta (H, Serie A)
Real Madrid — W L W W W:
- 10 Oct — Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal (H, La Liga)
- 20 Sep — Atlético Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid (A, La Liga)
- 15 Sep — Elche 2-3 Real Madrid (A, La Liga)
- 12 Sep — Real Madrid 4-1 Rayo Vallecano (H, La Liga)
- 8 Sep — Real Madrid 2-1 Inter Milan (H, UCL MD1)
Key Stats
- Real Madrid have won the last four competitive meetings without conceding (aggregate 9-0) and five of their six visits to Rome.
- Roma are unbeaten in all official competitions this season and hold Serie A’s best defensive record.
- Donyell Malen is Serie A’s top scorer with 6 goals (101greatgoals).
Correct Score Prediction
1-2 — Madrid’s individual quality in the final third (Mbappé, Vinícius, Bellingham) against a Roma side missing goalkeeper Svilar and Cristante, with Gollini deputising; but Roma’s league-best defensive record, eight home UCL wins in nine, and Malen’s counter threat make this a one-goal game.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
Last four meetings, newest first (all UEFA Champions League):
- 27 Nov 2018 — Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (Rome)
- 19 Sep 2018 — Real Madrid 3-0 Roma (Madrid)
- 8 Mar 2016 — Real Madrid 2-0 Roma (Madrid; Madrid won 4-0 on aggregate)
- 17 Feb 2016 — Roma 0-2 Real Madrid (Rome)
Overall: Roma 3 wins, 1 draw, Madrid 8 wins across 12 meetings (Sports Mole / UEFA).
Pre-Match Odds
Decimal bookmaker consensus (mrfixitstips / Rotowire / FootballWhispers): Real Madrid ~1.83–1.85, Draw ~3.8–4.0, AS Roma ~3.6–3.75.
Team News: AS Roma
OUT: Mile Svilar (foot fracture, out at least a month; Pierluigi Gollini deputises), Bryan Cristante (knee). DOUBT: Konstantinos Koulierakis (knee knock on Greece duty). FIT: Lorenzo Pellegrini (returned from long-term absence). AVAILABLE: Donyell Malen — his red card against Como carries a domestic suspension only.
Team News: Real Madrid
OUT: Raúl Asencio (tibia fracture, up to four months), Éder Militão (thigh; back in training but Mourinho has ruled him out of this match), Rodrygo (knee, not expected back until early 2027), Ferland Mendy (ligament). AVAILABLE: Vinícius (red card vs Villarreal is La Liga only), Kylian Mbappé (fit after a knee problem on France duty; minutes being managed), Federico Valverde (recovered from the ankle sprain in the Madrid derby), Ibrahima Konaté (played vs Villarreal after injury concerns).
Predicted Lineups
AS Roma (3-4-2-1, per UEFA.com): Gollini; Mancini, Balerdi, N’Dicka; Molina, de Roon, Koné, Wesley França; Soulé; Dybala, Malen.
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1, per UEFA.com): Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella; Valverde, Tchouaméni; Arda Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior; Mbappé.
Variants noted: some previews expect Hermoso over Balerdi for Roma, and Rüdiger/Carreras plus Diomande over Konaté/Cucurella/Güler for Madrid — Mourinho has options. Managers: Gian Piero Gasperini vs José Mourinho, second spell.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid Betting Tips
Tip 1 — Result: Real Madrid win.
Tip 2 — Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 goals.
Tip 3 — BTTS Yes/No: BTTS Yes.
Hot Tip
Both teams to score — Yes — Roma are unbeaten this season and won 8 of their last 9 home games in this competition; Madrid have conceded in both La Liga away defeats.
Our verdict: Madrid’s class to edge a 2-1 in Rome. For more Champions League predictions and today’s football predictions, check our predictions hub.
