Nigeria have been handed a huge boost in the race for AFCON 2027 after Madagascar held Group L leaders Guinea-Bissau to a 1-1 draw in Antananarivo on Thursday evening. The Madagascar 1-1 Guinea-Bissau result means the group leaders dropped two points on the eve of the Super Eagles’ own qualifier against Tanzania in Uyo, and the door to the top of the table is now wide open for Eric Chelle’s men.
Warren Caddy fired Madagascar ahead in the 59th minute, and for half an hour it looked as though the islanders would hand Nigeria an even bigger gift by beating the leaders outright. But Renato Nhaga rescued the visitors five minutes from time with a long-range strike, sparing Guinea-Bissau a first defeat of the campaign and keeping them top of the group.
It is still a result that suits Nigeria perfectly. Guinea-Bissau had won their opening two qualifiers — 2-0 away at Tanzania and 3-0 at home to the Super Eagles in September — and a third straight win would have taken them to nine points and left Chelle’s side chasing shadows. Instead they stay on seven points from three games, and Nigeria can cut the gap to a single point by beating Tanzania on Friday.
Madagascar 1-1 Guinea-Bissau: What the draw means for Group L
The Group L table now reads Guinea-Bissau on seven points, Nigeria on three, Madagascar on two and Tanzania on one. Only one of Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau can qualify for the finals in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, because Tanzania are already through as co-hosts.
That makes Friday’s game in Uyo a genuine six-pointer in everything but name. Beat Tanzania at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium and Nigeria move to six points, one behind the leaders, with the return leg in Zanzibar to come on Tuesday. Win both games against the Taifa Stars and the Super Eagles would move to nine points — level with Guinea-Bissau’s current total — and the group would be firmly in their hands.
Madagascar, meanwhile, are still alive on two points after drawing with Tanzania and losing 2-1 to Nigeria in Uyo in September. Their return fixture against Guinea-Bissau is the other game to watch on matchday four, and another dropped point for the leaders there would tilt the race further towards Nigeria.
Chelle’s six-point demand now looks very achievable
The draw could hardly have landed at a better time for Chelle, who told reporters this week that the Super Eagles must take six points from the Tanzania double-header to keep their AFCON 2027 hopes alive. With the full 24-man squad now in camp in Uyo and the group leaders suddenly looking beatable, that demand no longer sounds like a rallying cry — it sounds like a plan.
Nigeria’s own form in the group underlines why Friday matters so much. The Super Eagles opened with a 2-1 win over Madagascar in Uyo before the damaging 3-0 defeat in Guinea-Bissau in September, and Chelle has spent this week insisting his players must banish the memory of that night. A win over Tanzania would do exactly that, and with Guinea-Bissau no longer perfect, the group is there to be won.
All eyes on Uyo on Friday
Kick-off against Tanzania is 5pm WAT on Friday at the Godswill Akpabio Stadium, and the Super Eagles will walk out knowing exactly what is at stake. A win takes them to six points and within touching distance of the summit; anything less, and Guinea-Bissau’s draw in Antananarivo will count for nothing.
For more on the qualifiers, check today’s predictions.
Photos: SportsBuddy graphic — no licensed Madagascar or Guinea-Bissau player photo exists on Wikimedia Commons.
