In this preview, the Basque derby returns to the spotlight as Athletic Bilbao prepares to host Real Sociedad at San Mamés in the semi-final of the Copa del Rey. San Mamés, often referred to as “The Cathedral,” is set to provide a ferocious backdrop for this high-stakes first leg. Athletic Bilbao comes into this tie following a morale-boosting 4-2 win over Levante, looking to continue their rich tradition in this competition, while Real Sociedad remains one of the most in-form teams in Spain, currently enjoying a 10-game unbeaten streak.
This rivalry is defined by intensity and tactical discipline, making it one of the most intriguing fixtures for football fans and bettors alike. For those analyzing the markets, this betting preview highlights a clash where form meets tradition. Both sides have shown a clinical edge in front of goal recently, and with a place in the final at stake, the margins will be razor-thin. You can secure the most competitive odds for this Basque derby at Betano.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Betting Preview
Team Recent Form
Athletic Bilbao: W W D L L
Real Sociedad: W W D W W
Read More On: PREVIEW: Aston Villa vs Brighton Prediction
Key Stats
- Derby Deadlock: The most recent encounter between these two sides just ten days ago ended in a 1-1 draw, with Athletic needing an 88th-minute equalizer from Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta.
- Goals Guaranteed: Athletic Bilbao has seen both teams score in each of their last eight matches across all competitions, while Real Sociedad has mirrored this trend in their last 11 competitive fixtures.
- Copa Kings: Athletic Bilbao are the defending champions and have won 12 of their last 13 Copa del Rey matches, making them a formidable force in cup football. For updated live betting options, visit Betano.
Correct Score Prediction
Exact Correct Score: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad.
History tends to repeat itself in the Basque derby, especially in a first-leg scenario where neither team wants to play themselves out of the tie. Real Sociedad is in superior overall form and has been prolific away from home, scoring three goals in each of their last two road trips. However, Athletic Bilbao’s home record at San Mamés in this fixture is strong; they haven’t lost a home derby since 2021. Given that both defenses have struggled for clean sheets recently—Sociedad is on a 19-game run without one against top-flight opposition—a score draw is the most statistical outcome.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad H2H
- Recent Balance: In the last five competitive meetings, Athletic Bilbao has won twice, Real Sociedad has won once, and there have been two draws.
- Home Advantage: Athletic Bilbao is unbeaten in their last five home matches against Real Sociedad in all competitions (W4, D1).
- Defensive Struggles: Real Sociedad has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 27 competitive away matches against top-flight opponents.
- Common Scoreline: The 1-1 result is the most frequent scoreline in the history of this matchup at San Mamés, occurring in six previous meetings.
Read More On: PREVIEW: Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction
Pre-game Odds
- Athletic Bilbao Win: 2.28
- Draw: 3.30
- Real Sociedad Win: 3.50
Find these odds and more specialized player markets at Betano.
Team News Athletic Bilbao
Ernesto Valverde has several concerns heading into the semi-final. Yuri Berchiche was forced off with an injury during the weekend victory over Levante and is unlikely to feature. He joins Dani Vivian and Álex Berenguer on the injury list. However, Inaki Williams and Nico Williams remain the primary threats on the wings, and Gorka Guruzeta is in fine form, having netted twice in his last outing.
Team News Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad’s squad depth is being tested. Luka Sučić is expected to miss out after picking up an injury shortly after scoring against Elche. Long-term absentees include Takefusa Kubo (hamstring) and Arsen Zakharyan. On the positive side, Mikel Oyarzabal continues to lead by example with 5 goals in his last 10 games, and Gonçalo Guedes has become a vital creative hub with 3 assists in his last 5 appearances.
Predicted Lineup for Both Teams
Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1): Simón; Gorosabel, Paredes, Laporte, Lekue; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; Serrano, Guruzeta, Nico Williams; Inaki Williams.
Real Sociedad (4-4-2): Remiro; Gomez, Caleta-Car, Zubeldia, Odriozola; Turrientes, Soler, Gorrotxategi, Marin; Oyarzabal, Guedes.
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Betting Tips
- Tip 1 – Result: Draw
- Tip 2 – Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals
- Tip 3 – Both Teams to Score: Yes
For the best experience placing your bets on the Basque Derby, we recommend Betano.
Affiliate Disclosure & Disclaimer:
This article contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and sign up, we may receive a small commission at no extra cost to you.
Full terms and conditions apply | gambleaware.org | Gamble responsibly | 18+
